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Climate change and permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss in Canada’s fringe permafrost zone

Olivia Carpino, University of Guelph, ocarpino@uoguelph.ca (Presenter)
Aaron Berg, University of Guelph, aberg@uoguelph.ca
Bill Quinton, Wilfrid Laurier University, wquinton@wlu.ca
Justin Adams, Wilfrid Laurier University, jadams@wlu.ca

Permafrost distribution throughout the Canadian subarctic is not particularly well understood due to a combination of the remoteness and size of the region, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, limited data availability, and incomplete monitoring networks. These factors not only highlight the challenges associated with establishing a comprehensive understanding of the changing distribution of permafrost under the impacts of climate change, but also further emphasize the need to improve techniques of remotely capturing and analyzing permafrost distribution. Landcover, which is highly visible and easily identified through remote sensing data, has been proposed as an emerging method; where forest cover is often indicative of permafrost plateaus, while wetlands are underlain by permafrost-free ground. Recent warming throughout the subarctic boreal peatlands has led to rapid and widespread permafrost degradation and has also corresponded with a significant decrease in forest cover and wetland expansion. This study quantifies landcover change and net forest loss at 10 subarctic boreal peatland sites in the southern Northwest Territories and northeastern British Columbia between 1970 and 2010. Historical air photos and optical remote sensing images were assessed using a change detection approach over 10 square kilometre areas of interest. Variable patterns of net forest loss at each site ranged from 6.9% to 11.6% over the 40-year study period. These differential rates of landcover change can be explained in part through climatic and environmental factors that vary latitudinally across the selected sites. Change statistics – net change, forest gain and forest loss were significantly correlated with an assortment of factors that varied across the 10-site transect.

Associated Project(s): 

Poster Location ID: 15

Session Assigned: Permafrost and Hydrology

 


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