A Biogeochemical Forecasting System for Arctic Wetland Methane Emissions

Zhen Zhang, University of Maryland, yuisheng@gmail.com (Presenter)
Abhishek Chatterjee, NASA GSFC / USRA GESTAR, abhishek.chatterjee@nasa.gov
Eugenie Euskirchen, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, seeuskirchen@alaska.edu
Jeffrey Masek, NASA GSFC, jeffrey.g.masek@nasa.gov
Charles Miller, NASA JPL, charles.e.miller@jpl.nasa.gov
Lesley Ott, NASA GSFC, lesley.e.ott@nasa.gov
Colm Sweeney, NOAA/ESRL GMD, colm.sweeney@noaa.gov
Benjamin Poulter, NASA GSFC, benjamin.poulter@nasa.gov

Wetlands are the largest source of methane in the Arctic region, accounting for more than two-thirds of the total budget. Measurements of wetland methane fluxes in the Arctic are challenging given the large spatial extent and heterogeneity of sources and also because temporal dynamics are dependent on pulses of emissions, i.e., in the shoulder-seasons, that are difficult to capture. Here, we present a framework for providing short-term (one week to 3 months) forecasts of wetland methane emissions using LPJ as a prognostic land-surface model coupled within the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) Earth system model. The LPJ biogeochemical model estimates daily wetland methane emissions by combining wetland area with soil microbial activity, accounting for local topography, soil moisture, soil temperature, and vertically discretized freeze-thaw dynamics. Meteorological forecasts are provided by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office and with a three-month projection and at 12.5 km spatial resolution. We demonstrate LPJ forecasts for wetland methane emissions for the ABOVE domain during the 2017 campaign and give examples on how the forecasts can be operationalized as an additional component of targeting in-situ field and airborne measurements (e.g., AVIRIS-NG and ArctiCAP), and to potentially reduce bias by covering a wider range of low to high-flux areas.

Associated Project(s): 

• Chatterjee-01

Poster Location ID: 82

Session Assigned: Modeling