Toward Understanding Dynamics in Shifting Biomes: An Individual Based Modeling Approach to Characterizing Drought and Mortality in Central Western Canada

Amanda HIldt Armstrong, University of Virginia, amanda.h.armstrong@nasa.gov (Presenter)
Adrianna Foster, NASA GSFC / USRA, adrianna.c.foster@nasa.gov
Brendan Morris Rogers, Woods Hole Research Center, brogers@whrc.org
Ted Hogg, Canadian Forest Service, ted.hogg@canada.ca
Michael Michaelian, Canadian Forest Service, michael.michaelian@canada.ca
Jacquelyn K. Shuman, National Center for Atmospheric Research, jkshuman@ucar.edu
Herman Henry Shugart, University of Virginia, hhs@virginia.edu
Scott J. Goetz, Northern Arizona University, scott.goetz@nau.edu

The Arctic–Boreal zone is known be warming at an accelerated rate relative to other biomes. Persistent

warming has already affected the high northern latitudes, altering vegetation productivity, carbon

sequestration, and many other ecosystem processes and services. The central-western Canadian boreal

forests and aspen parkland are experiencing a decade long drought, and rainfall has been identified as a

key factor controlling the location of the boundary between forest and prairie in this region. Shifting biome

with related greening and browning trends are readily measureable with remote sensing, but the dynamics

that create and result from them are not well understood. In this study, we use the University of Virginia

Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), an individual-based forest model, to simulate the changes that are

occurring across the southern boreal and parkland forests of west-central Canada. We present a

parameterization of UVAFME for western central Canadian forests, validated with CIPHA data (Climate

Change Impacts on the Productivity and Health of Aspen), and improved mortality. In order to gain a finescale

understanding of how climate change and specifically drought will continue to affect the forests of

this region, we simulated forest conditions following CMIP5 climate scenarios. UVAFME predictions were

compared with statistical models and satellite observations of productivity across the landscape.

Changes in forest cover, forest type, aboveground biomass, and mortality and recruitment dynamics are

presented, highlighting the high vulnerability of this region to vegetation transitions associated with future

droughts.

Associated Project(s): 

• Goetz-03

Poster Location ID: 49

Session Assigned: Vegetation Dynamics and Distribution